Ok, there are two topics here: Uncertainty and Swingyness (is it even a term?).
On swingy mechanics, I think it's a design decision, not necessarily bad. Let's make some examples:
Basic Roleplaying System: 1d100 under Skill. This is pretty obvious, linear probability, easy to estimate.
D&D: 1d20+bonus over DC. Mathematically it's the same, linear probability, easy to estimate (with very little math), but! I agree with you, the fixed part is less predominant than in Basic Roleplaying System.
GURPS: 3d6 under target number. This is harder to estimate, unless you know by heart the probability table (not impossible to do, but still not immediate), but you get some feeling about it... 10 is 50/50, 16 is almost certain, 7 it's quite difficult. Is this swingy? Not at all, at least in the long run.
What I mean to say? Swingyness is a design choice, a feature.
On uncertainty... I think your system is very interesting because it makes it hard to estimate your success probability, yet, as you said, the fixed part is predominant, so in the end you get a feeling. I like it because, one gets to know their characters while playing them and not the other way around!
I love seeing into the design philosophy behind peoples games. I also love the discussion of the math used, and I find this very interesting. I had never directly thought about the balance between player input (character stats) and the variable (dice), and I will definitely be thinking about it now as I move forward with my own projects. Thanks for provoking my thoughts!
Well, in that case you missed the rulebook version where I also added my thoughts about game design choices! That was the printed version of the teal edition of VI·VIII·X, the playtest edition!
Ok, there are two topics here: Uncertainty and Swingyness (is it even a term?).
On swingy mechanics, I think it's a design decision, not necessarily bad. Let's make some examples:
Basic Roleplaying System: 1d100 under Skill. This is pretty obvious, linear probability, easy to estimate.
D&D: 1d20+bonus over DC. Mathematically it's the same, linear probability, easy to estimate (with very little math), but! I agree with you, the fixed part is less predominant than in Basic Roleplaying System.
GURPS: 3d6 under target number. This is harder to estimate, unless you know by heart the probability table (not impossible to do, but still not immediate), but you get some feeling about it... 10 is 50/50, 16 is almost certain, 7 it's quite difficult. Is this swingy? Not at all, at least in the long run.
What I mean to say? Swingyness is a design choice, a feature.
On uncertainty... I think your system is very interesting because it makes it hard to estimate your success probability, yet, as you said, the fixed part is predominant, so in the end you get a feeling. I like it because, one gets to know their characters while playing them and not the other way around!
I love seeing into the design philosophy behind peoples games. I also love the discussion of the math used, and I find this very interesting. I had never directly thought about the balance between player input (character stats) and the variable (dice), and I will definitely be thinking about it now as I move forward with my own projects. Thanks for provoking my thoughts!
Well, in that case you missed the rulebook version where I also added my thoughts about game design choices! That was the printed version of the teal edition of VI·VIII·X, the playtest edition!
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fcf863456-9d80-4989-ba59-3e9d0459efa1_2333x2043.jpeg